Imagine if a best-selling car had caused fatalities because of a mechanical issue and then, a few years later, had a near-fatal incident due to another manufacturing fault. Would you feel safe in it? Would you buy one?
This is the potential issue Boeing faces with its 737 Max, one variant of which remains grounded after a door plug blew out on a two-month old Alaska Airlines Max 9 earlier this month leaving a gaping hole in the aircraft’s fuselage.
This incident followed terrible accidents in 2018 and 2019 when two Max 8 aircraft flown by Indonesia’s Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines crashed due to a flight control software issue which sent both aircraft into an unrecoverable nosedive, killing 346 people.
Boeing spent two years sorting the problem with the Max 8, a process which also saw it drop the ‘Max’ moniker and attempt to rebrand the model as the Boeing 737-8.
It now has another issue with the Max 9, a stretched version of the same aircraft, some of which have a "plug’" blocking a hole where an emergency door would otherwise be installed.
If the Max was a car, perhaps a Ford as the UK’s biggest seller, Ford might expect a dip in sales, but nothing of the sort has happened to Boeing. In fact, the Max is its fastest seller, with Boeing taking hefty orders even while the Max 8 was still grounded.
The Max’s more fuel-efficient engines mean it remains very attractive to airlines despite its issues. It will continue to be, because there are only really two manufacturers in the world – Boeing and Airbus – that can offer a product of this sort to airlines; Russia is decades away from becoming a global aircraft manufacturer again, and China is already an outpost of Airbus where it has its own factories.
Consequently, just as the US Federal Aviation Authority gave an update on inspections of the Max 9, another order came in, with India’s Akasa Air buying 150 Max 8 and Max 10s. This was the first Max purchase of 2024, following Lufthansa, which just before Christmas agreed to buy up to 100.
In fact, the 737 Max, in all its variants, is Boeing’s fastest selling aircraft of all time. There are nearly 1,500 in service, but around 5,000 on order, including options. Ryanair and Tui are already operators of the Max 8 and have more on order, with British Airways parent IAG also buying 50 for its stable of carriers that includes British Airways.
None of these airlines are cancelling their orders, so the chances are your clients – and you – will be flying on one in the near future whether you like it or not.
There were no loud protests from Tui or Ryanair customers when the Max 8 was brought back into service and in truth, most travellers have no idea of what aircraft they are flying on and don’t know how to find out – or even wish to.
If your clients do want to know, the ticketing will refer to "equipment" and identify the aircraft used, but I’ll bet few do or ever will enquire.
Given its position in the market and the fact that the 737 has been around since the 1960s, it looks like Boeing will ride out its latest storm once the US regulators have found where its manufacturing processes have again been lacking.
Despite its problems, the Max is here to stay.
Gary Noakes is senior contributor and analyst at TTG.
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