London's airports ready to grow – and 'steal a march' on Heathrow

Heathrow, though, has been largely coy on its plans for several years now, breaking its silence earlier this year only to insist expansion “remains probable” following a pause in development due to the pandemic.

Pre-Covid, the airport was operating close to capacity; annual passenger numbers hit a pre-Covid high of 80.9 million in 2019 – almost double Gatwick – off the back of nearly 476,000 air traffic movements, just 4,000 shy of its current 480,000 cap.

Its plans to increase this cap by around another half (54%) to 740,000 have the backing of the government in principle, but questions have been raised over when there is still the need or the appetite for this level of expansion, which could allow for annual passenger numbers of 135 million by 2050 – 55 million more than in 2019.

However, combining the proposed growth across Gatwick (32 million), Luton (14 million) and London City (2.5 million) alone, notwithstanding Stansted’s plans to create room for 17 million more passengers than it currently handles, all-but covers the projected 55 million additional passengers an expanded Heathrow could accommodate.

After Gatwick lodged its plans, infrastructure specialist lawyer Angus Walker, a partner at BDB Pitmans, said Gatwick may have “stolen a march” on Heathrow in the battle for expansion, with the development plans from other nearby airports also potentially causing Heathrow problems in getting a final go-ahead for the additional runway.

“These applications are all getting in before Heathrow makes its application for a third runway - making the case for that airport more difficult,” said Walker.

“Being large pieces of infrastructure with considerable environmental impacts such as noise, traffic and carbon emissions, airports must jump through numerous regulatory and legal hoops to gain approval. In the Gatwick versus Heathrow battle, it seems that Gatwick have stolen a march on their rival.”

Sustainability hurdles

However, John Grant, from aviation data company OAG, said it was far from certain Gatwick would gain approval for its second runway plan. He told TTG he was also doubtful the Sussex airport could ever really challenge Heathrow as the UK’s main hub, even if Gatwick does secure planning permission to routinely use its northern standby runway.

“The two airports do, of course, compete – but Gatwick serves more of a local market and with an increasing low-cost network,” added Grant. “I suspect that is the way it will go in the future and indeed how the Gatwick management team and owners probably want it to develop as there is more cash in that play.

“I think there will be more than enough for Gatwick to go for and develop without needing to try and replicate the Heathrow model with all of its inbuilt complexity.”

Aviation consultant John Strickland added: “As Heathrow becomes more constrained in the absence of a new runway, Gatwick can certainly come to rival it in terms of traffic volume should its own runway plans come to fruition.

“However, it can never become a hub given the mix of airlines and routes it has. Heathrow benefits from long-haul and short-haul networks built up over many decades by British Airways.

"Gatwick has a different passenger demographic driven far more by short-haul leisure and less by long-haul. Even if capacity increases, I do not expect this mix to change significantly.”