Why a new battle of the big three bodes well for agents

Jet2, meanwhile, has ambitions beyond just retaining market leadership. Last November, chief executive Steve Heapy told the Jet2holidays conference the airline and operator’s order for up to 146 brand-new aircraft meant “we have to double [in size] in the next five or six years”.

Even by mass market operator standards, this is bold, but Jet2 has already got started; besides announcing new destinations and product lines, the airline will debut at Liverpool next March, where it has put 565,000 summer 2024 seats on sale across 20 destinations and will base four aircraft.

Speaking to TTG, Heapy claimed Liverpool airport’s catchment doesn’t currently “have a real package holiday product”, failing to acknowledge easyJet and easyJet holidays, which offers 25 or so destinations from Liverpool. Heapy said the capacity Jet2 is putting into Liverpool was “purely incremental” and not capacity moved from elsewhere.

“Every one of our now 11 UK bases has the opportunity for more aircraft,” he said, adding he was also open to overtures from other airports. “We speak to airports throughout the UK on a constant basis. The conditions were right for a launch in Liverpool, but we’ll keep our minds open.”

Longer term, the smart money money for steady growth may be on easyJet holidays. EasyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren said the tour operation currently took up only a fraction of the airline’s capacity, which is already the UK’s largest to beach and holiday destinations.

“It is 4% on where we stand today, so there is no constraint on growth,” he said. Next year will see easyJet open a base at Birmingham, its first in the UK in more than a decade, drawing yet more package customers, and another in Alicante.

EasyJet holidays’ track record is already impressive, carrying 1.1 million customers in its first fully operational year. It plans 60% growth for summer 2023 in the UK. EasyJet has 163 aircraft on order for delivery by 2028, and while some will be replacements, the group clearly has the tools to become a major operator brand. “We don’t see we are going to run out of aircraft in order to satisfy growth ambitions,” Lundgren said.

The bunfight won’t start properly until next year, and once the trio start scrapping, the big winner will be the consumer. Meanwhile, the industry is making hay while the sun shines. Enjoy it – and get your fill – while it lasts.

Gary Noakes is TTG’s senior contributor and analyst.