Catching the glow of the winter sun market

“I believe that [Cook’s Marsa Alam programme] will [lead to] a growing confidence in the other Red Sea destinations and the British will soon see them not as a second choice to Sharm but as a first choice,” he says. “Because of the success we have had with Sharm, ourselves and our tour operator partners did perhaps not push the other destinations as much, and now it is an opening to a new path.”

Philip Breckner, director of operator Discover Egypt, also believes there will be a “Cook effect”: “It’s very encouraging that they are doing that and it sends a strong message that Egypt is open. It’s of course competition for us but it helps to grow the market and make it more healthy.

“The country has suffered from a misconception that it’s ‘off limits’ but that’s not at all true. Cairo, Luxor and the Nile Valley are all very much open for business.”

The opening up of Tunisia by the FCO last month might also bolster the argument for the resumption of flights to Sharm, El Ezabi believes.

“If I was a British citizen seeing that the ‘ban’ on travel to Tunisia has been waived I would think it would be logical to ask if this would be the same for Sharm el Sheikh,” he says. “These people must put the question out there – could it now be waived on Sharm el Sheikh too?”

Again, it is Thomas Cook that is leading the big operators back into Tunisia, with the first flights into Enfidha on February 13 from Gatwick, Birmingham and Manchester.

The increased airlift will enable independent operators to bolster their programme, but in the real bleak mid-winter, Tunisia does not offer guaranteed winter sun – something that champions of other destinations, such as Serenity Holidays’ managing director Chris Rowles, are quick to point out.

“I’m not sure that [the advice change for Tunisia] will have a discernible impact,” he says. “Both Cape Verde and Gambia have totally reliable winter sun. Tunisia, during the real winter can be cold, so the appeal is quite different. Also with a relatively small programme from the UK to Tunisia it is unlikely to detract greatly.”

Serenity is gearing up for the winter market with a rebrand of its programmes, including magazine-style brochures, amid optimism that Gambia’s new government has reduced uncertainty about the destination. Rowles says bookings for the coming winter are “currently very encouraging”, with both Gambia and Cape Verde holidays being up more than 40% compared with this point last year.

“While this is a great position to be in, it is unclear whether the late market will continue to be as strong,” he adds.

Rowles however also believes the British weather will play a part for everyone, with the trend for summer “staycations” meaning this summer’s grey UK skies might prompt more people to opt for a winter break.

“I normally expect winter sales to really take off mid-September – if you have spent a rainy two weeks in Cornwall you may not book your next holiday immediately, but when autumn kicks in it reminds you of how little sun you've seen this year.”

However, he adds: “I am just a bit cautious – this summer had a good start but the late market was weaker – so I do not know if we’ll see the same pattern during winter.”

With both Marsa Alam and Tunisia back on the scene in the 2017-18 season, the winter sun market will certainly be more competitive this year than last. It will be interesting to see if a hotting up in the north Africa market creates a cooling down in others such as the Canaries.