Well it finally happened. Just over three months ago the much-predicted interest rate increase happened. With things having settled down somewhat, now we can take a considered look at what effect the increase is having on the consumer and the travel industry.
Clearly the most dramatic effect will be on mortgage holders. While the increase from 0.25% to 0.5% still leaves us with a historically low interest rate, Bank of England governor Mark Carney is on record as saying that there will in all likelihood be three more increases in the next two years. Since the recent increase will add, for millions, an extra £200 per year per £100,000 of mortgage, the wise mortgage holder will be factoring in where they will be financially in two years’ time, and that’s not good news.
Consumer confidence is at a low, plus the level of personal debt in the UK is already high. Will consumers want to get further into debt? Rising living and mortgage costs, increasing the gap between living costs and inflation, may scupper the travel plans of many.
At least for savers, life must now be a little better, but last November’s increase in interest rates is hardly going to send savers out on a spending spree; taking into account the negative points outlined above, the small increase they will get will not be life-changing.
Another point is that the new ban on charging for credit cards might mean more people will use them and therefore move further into debt. However, as tour operators may well increase their prices to cover increased card costs now incurred, this might be a false dawn.
So far, so gloomy: higher costs for mortgages, increased cost of living including food and fuel, very little benefit for savers, and – as we head for 2019 – the psychological effect of Brexit lying ahead of us.
However, holidays are essential now; they are no longer a luxury. Consumers are simply not going to stop travelling – the vast majority are still planning to travel this year.
What they will do is adjust and amend their ideas. As always happens in a weakened economy, they will choose shorter duration holidays – 14 nights becomes 10, 8 nights becomes 5, and so on. They will also look for good-value destinations. Close to home, eastern Europe offers great value, while Lisbon and Athens offer some of the best value in western Europe. And the rise of low-cost long-haul air travel could not have come at a better time.
And best of all, for the travel industry, more people than ever are going to look for sound expert advice on where to go for the best-value holiday – not only when to travel to avoid peak season costs, but also how to stretch their savings in-resort.
Amid the negativity of early 2018, at least the travel industry should be able to benefit from the mood of consumers as never before. Let’s hope that interest rate rises are in fact followed by an increase in business for the travel industry.
Derek Moore is chair of Aito
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