The Big Question: Has the pandemic changed peaks for ever?
Harry KembleWhile it’s difficult to predict exactly how peaks is going to play out before the campaigns officially launch, it is undeniable new trends emerged towards the end of the pandemic.
January has traditionally been the trade’s busiest four-week period, but booking levels have remained strong throughout much of this year – even during the quieter summer months.
Some operators and cruise lines are launching their programmes earlier to take advantage of the year-round sales rush, while some agents now prepare for each new month as they would peaks.
So just a month out from peaks, four travel experts tell TTG whether this new mindset is likely to be temporary or permanent.
What do you think? Join in the debate in the comments section below, or email feedback@ttgmedia.com. Alternatively, head to one of TTG’s social media channels to get involved.
'Every month up to October is super peaks'
January has always been our busiest month, but this January was absolutely unbelievable. We did nearly double the amount of business as in the same month in 2022, which at that point was our busiest ever.
For us, 2022 was an amazing year – our best year – but I wasn’t expecting 2023 to smash that. We’ve far exceeded each of our monthly targets.
Speaking to agents up and down the country, they were all saying the same. Looking back at 2019 sales, January – again – was again our top sales month, but every month this year has far exceeded that. So, every month up to October, I would now class as peaks, excluding January, which I now describe as super peaks.
Prior to Covid, I’d say there were probably three different booking patterns throughout the year. Our approach from 2022 was to plan for 10 months of peaks, which means non-stop extended marketing and staffing the shop at full capacity.
In readiness for an exciting 2024, we have upgraded all of our computers. We have a new, faster, more efficient printer and a new marketing suite, so our social media, emails and posters are all aligned, saving precious time. We also have a new television system showing our offers, along with a new phone system.
Peaks hasn’t had its heyday, it’s just been extended throughout most of the year. After the pandemic, those agents who managed to get through it have started to reap the rewards with new technology, fantastic booking systems, being able to book seasons far further in advance, and more and more customers wanting to deal with real people. Long may it continue.
Tony Mann is owner-founder of Bradford-based agency Idle Travel.
'The flow of bookings is steadier throughout the year now'
The world has been turbulent since March 2020, and the only thing we can be certain of right now is change – changing geopolitical situations, changing climates, changing financial circumstances, and so on.
Of course, not all of what’s happened in the past three years is a direct result of the pandemic, but there was never any doubt the impact was going to be felt long beyond the lockdowns and the mass vaccination programmes.
This turbulence has caused the constant changes in booking trends, which have impacted peaks in the short-term. The last-minute booking trend of the last couple of years is slowly shifting back to booking one to two years out, particularly given the growth in demand for cruise.
However, it’s not just external factors; the trade has changed peaks – Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions start in early November, while peaks promotions launch pre-Christmas. This has resulted
in a four- or five-month promotional period, prompting some to book earlier. Others, though, feel fatigued by the never-ending headlines insisting that “now is the best time to book”.
The result is a steadier flow of bookings throughout the year rather than huge surges in demand at key points of the year.
So what will peaks 2024 look like for us? We’re expecting a steady January followed by a very strong February and March as guests wait for that end-of- January pay day.
We’re very positive about 2024, as we’ve seen year-on-year growth since opening, and we firmly believe that will continue whatever the ultimate outcome is of peaks 2024.
Robbie O'Grady is co-founder of agency The Cruise Room on the Wirral.
'We anticipate there will be demand across all sectors'
It’s difficult to give a true perspective of how we think peaks will play out this January and February. Last year’s peaks was our first since the pandemic, and it was a huge success.
However, that momentum has continued throughout the year, raising the question of whether it was peaks that was driving sales or just the start of the resurgence of travel and the release of huge pent-up demand.
As we settle into the post-pandemic travel landscape, I do believe we will continue to see a boost to sales during peaks, and that a more predictable trading pattern will return over the coming years.
We know many people typically start to look at booking their holidays for 2024 and beyond straight after Christmas. So, as always, we will be providing our members with a comprehensive campaign to support them and help them capture as much of this demand as possible.
We are already seeing our members anticipate a boost to sales, as they are making plans to support bigger volumes in January and February and increasing their staffing levels and marketing efforts to support this.
We anticipate there will be demand across all sectors, so as always, our product communities focusing on cruise, luxury travel, and touring and adventure, will play a big part in our peaks support for members.
We are keen to showcase the full range of products that can be booked via a travel agent and continue to highlight the expertise and support that booking with an agent offers.
Kelly Cookes is the Advantage Travel Partnership's chief commercial officer.
'Peaks is ingrained in our DNA'
It’s hard to envisage a time when peaks won’t be a big moment in the industry’s calendar. It’s ingrained in our DNA – a chance for travel businesses to set out their stall on how they can make consumers’ holiday dreams come true.
But that doesn’t mean the peaks of today are like those in the years before the pandemic, because holiday trends are changing. Abta’s recent Holiday Habits report highlighted how consumers are planning to travel across the year instead of predominantly during the main summer months. And they’re looking to take multiple trips. All this indicates bookings happening over a wider timespan than before.
We’re also seeing tour operators and cruise lines launch their programmes and itineraries earlier, with the chance to book now for 2025. Booking this far in advance wasn’t an option in the past, so booking patterns are becoming more fluid – and advertising campaigns too.
Companies have been starting their marketing campaigns earlier each year as they look to drive inspiration and brand awareness, as well as sales. Abta is a case in point. We launched our latest Travel with Confidence campaign in mid-November, which aims to inspire and encourage booking with Abta members. It will be followed with more activity to coincide with traditional post-Christmas/ January peaks.
Some things never change though. To maximise bookings, you need to know your customer market, their buying patterns, the best way to reach them, and when. Abta’s habits and trends insight can help with that.
Graeme Buck is director of communications at Abta.
The Big Question by TTG
The Big Question is a monthly feature from TTG taking on some of the burning issues facing travel through expert commentary, insight and debate. While it's not designed to be adversarial, it won't flinch from placing a spotlight on some often uncomfortable topics travel – like it or not – will one day have to reckon with.
- Is the 'S' word starting to put customers off?
- Is direct action targeting commercial travel ever justifiable?
- Is it time to rebrand the travel agent?
- Does travel have an ageism problem?
- Has travel added too much capacity for summer 2024?
- Can celebrity endorsements ever be truly responsible?
- Do women have equal opportunity to progress in travel?
- Should the cruise sector shout about lower prices?
- Is it time for a change of government?
- Has the pandemic changed peaks for ever?
- Is it finally time to turn APD into an environmental tax?
- Does all-inclusive value come at too high a price for the planet?
- Can cruise sail ahead of land-based breaks?
- Should travel companies still be selling captive animal attractions?
- Can aviation do more to help disabled travellers?
- Is there a future for private jets in travel?
- Should agents start charging for their time?
- Is it finally time to reform the Atol scheme?
- Should we be flying during a climate crisis?
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Harry Kemble
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