Just how much will the Budget cost the travel industry?

From the shop floor, agents’ views are mixed. “We’re considering how to grow at the same rate as we planned because we’ll have to pay more bills,” said Beverley Travel’s Kelly Cheesman, adding the Budget “would affect everything”.

Jennifer Lynch from Worcester agency ArrangeMy Escape is also cautious. “If we were going to expand, I’d really have to think about whether it’s worth it because we’re having to pay a lot more in taxes,” she said. “I’m definitely not [currently] looking to expand or recruit.”

However, Shevaun Joy, co-owner of Destination Travel, which recently expanded to a second store just over the border in Lancashire, said: “I wouldn’t say we’re having to think twice about expansion. If we’re going to go for three staff, we may only go for two because of the minimum wage hike, but if you’re productive as a business, it shouldn't be too much of a problem.

“I don’t think we will recruit more homeworkers because of the Budget. The shop is always busier of the two.”

Dundee-based Hays Travel franchisee John Stewart, who recently opened a third shop in the Fife town of Cupar, was also upbeat. “Our growth will take care of any additional costs we face.

"The Budget hasn’t deterred me at all. In fact, we’re increasing staff we employ across our three stores. Our costs will go up, but we will grow and adapt to ensure revenues cover [them].”

The ex-Cook top seller who became Hays Travel's biggest franchisee

He added he had not been deterred from hiring trainees. “Young people joining our business are the future. If you stop [giving them a chance], you don’t have a future.”

Barrhead’s Dobson also pledged her commitment to younger workers. “Nothing changes our commitment to apprentices,” she said. “We’ve already planned our intake for 2025.”

Rates reform

Days after the Budget, the government passed business rate reform through parliament. Details will come in the 2025 Budget, with promises of “permanently cut” rates from 2026.

James Murray, exchequer secretary to the Treasury, warned the system “cannot be transformed overnight”. In the interim period, the relief introduced during the pandemic, worth up to £110,000 per annum, will fall from 75% to 40%.

Powers to set business rates are devolved to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, but Murray said reform would benefit high streets “across the UK”.

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That could be good news for Scotland. “There’s some light relief with the business rates reduction in England, but retailers have been campaigning for full reform for years,” said Dobson. “We have to understand what the long-term plan is from 2026 as a matter of urgency.”

Murray said the government “intends to give the biggest cut to those with a rateable value fewer than £51,000”.

For anyone thinking of selling up, there is also reassuring news. Pre-Budget fears about tax rises led to a flurry of mergers and acquisitions. But Deborah Potts, director of Summit Advisory, which sealed three deals in October, said: “The rise in Capital Gains Tax was nowhere near as high as sellers feared.”

For the vast majority not throwing in the towel, there are other reasons to be cheerful. Interest rates have fallen, while inflation is forecast to average 2.6% by 2029, although a sharp rise from 1.7% in September to 2.3% in October – reflecting the pre-Budget period – was a surprise.

Council tax, meanwhile, will go up by a maximum of 5% next year, with the existing cap remaining. All this matters as to how the industry fares because, in the end, its success comes down to how good the consumer feels.