Heathrow insists expansion ‘remains probable’ despite Covid and climate considerations

Prior to the pandemic, Heathrow was given the green light by the government to explore expansion of the airport via a third runway, albeit subject to gaining planning permission. Formally, the government’s position remains the same despite several years of pandemic upheaval, it being enshrined in the country’s Airports National Policy Statement.

The government has subsequently reaffirmed its backing for the ANPS on two occasions – in September 2021 and May 2022 – and Heathrow said its ambitions continued to be supported by the CAA. It has, though, acknowledged expansion will still likely depend on further confirmation of the ANPS by the transport secretary, or the outcome of a review.

"Covid-19 has created uncertainty of when passenger demand will recover to pre-pandemic levels," said the airport. "However, management’s current long-term passenger modelling still supports the business case. Long-term passenger forecasts are continually reviewed by management and the board, which still support the fact that expansion would be affordable and financeable."

‘Green growth agenda’

Heathrow, though, said sustainability would likely now be a much larger consideration should it seek planning permission to expand the airport via a third runway.

"In order to obtain planning consent for the third runway, we will have to demonstrate that expanding Heathrow is compatible with the UK’s climate change obligations, including the Paris Climate Agreement," said the airport.

"The government has made decarbonising aviation a central part of its green growth agenda, through wider use of sustainable aviation fuel as well as new technology, and such widespread innovation is incorporated into our long-term forecasting."

It added: "The directors have carefully considered the risks to expansion, particularly future demand recovery following Covid-19 in addition to climate change risk on long-term passenger numbers, the legislative and regulatory environment, and any likely finance-ability risks. We still consider expansion as a probable outcome."

Heathrow will adopt this stance when it comes to next steps in its pursuit of expansion when engaging with investors, government, airline customers, local communities and regulators.