Euromonitor predicts no recovery in global tourism for 3-5 years

The Euromonitor International report, Accelerating Travel Innovations after Coronavirus, will be unveiled on day one of the event, on Monday (9 November).

It says provided the pandemic is contained within a year and demand begins to rebound in 2021, airlines will take “a minimum of four years” to recover, whilst lodging and intermediaries will take even longer.

The report says there are bigger challenges for the UK from the possibility of a no deal Brexit.

“The economy is forecast to contract by 11% in 2020 in the baseline scenario, with a potential rebound in 2021 of 5%, providing that there is not a prolonged period of social distancing measures,” said Caroline Bremner, Euromonitor’s head of travel research.

“Unemployment is expected to double to around 8%, which could triple in a worst-case scenario of extended business and consumer restrictions for another year. Inbound tourism receipts are expected to fall by –49% in 2020 in a best-case scenario.” Bremner added.